1204 simulation project: logs 1-12
The current version focuses only on data related to the capital, including administrative expenses, military expenses, debt, loyalty, stability, and other variables. In future versions, I may add interactions with the eastern provinces, such as tax collection and retention, and financial support sent from the capital to the provinces.
log 1: Simulation is run on excel. In the absence of a payment delay mechanism, the model indicates that the central treasury must maintain a sustained cash flow of approximately 800,000 gold coins in order to avoid seasonal liquidity shortfalls.
log 2. the model assumes the agricultural taxes are collected in March and September. Source doiserbia.nb.rs/ft.aspx?id=058 p88
log 3. In the current version of the model, tax revenues from the eastern provinces are assumed to be transferred to the central treasury rather than consumed locally. This is a simplified version and maybe modified later.
log 3. I drafted menu (need to modify).
log 5. I couldn’t find exact data on the Byzantine Empire’s annual revenue in 1200, so I had to infer it from available evidence.
log 6. In 1150, under Komnenian dynasty, the annual revenue was about 5.6 million hyperpyra. In 1203, when Alexios III fled, he took with him 1,000 pounds of gold (about 72,000 gold coins).
log 7. In 1203, Alexios IV owed the Crusaders 200,000 silver marks (about 800,000 hyperpyra), and he managed to pay 440,000 hyperpyra.
log 8. For the exchange rate between the Venetian silver mark and the Byzantine gold hyperpyron, I use the rate given in a Dumbarton Oaks paper: “the hyperpyron was … worth one-quarter of a mark.” Source: scribd.com/document/54937 p201
log 9. Based on my earlier Excel simulations and other sources, I estimate that the Byzantine Empire’s annual revenue around 1200 was in the range of 1–2 million. 1 million may be a bit too low for that period, so I will set the initial value at 2 million.
log 10. This is a historically informed, model-based simulation rather than a strict reconstruction. The purpose of this simulation is to understand the systemic and structural factors behind the empire’s collapse in 1204.
log 11. Based on my model results, after local retention, around 25–30% of tax revenue reaches the central government, and 27% works best in the simulation.
log 12. line art for the portrait of Alexios III Angelos. The facial reference is based on the portrait from Mutinensis gr. 122; the imperial costume is inspired by his coinage.
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